Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Writers Approve The Contract

My time has been completely zapped in the couple of weeks since the Writers went back to work.  In that time, however, the contract was officially ratified, meaning the hardliners will have to wait for at least three years before plunging us all back into financial disaster.

But they needn't fret -- SAG lurks on the horizon.

The general feeling seems to be that SAG won't strike, but it obviously remains a very real possibility.

I haven't had a chance to write up my post-mortem on the Strike itself, and this remains something I look forward to doing (so check back!).  In brief, though, I -- like so many others -- believe that the Writers contract was achievable without going on strike.  And if not entirely so, then at least close enough that the costs of the strike far outweigh the modest improvements that the strike actually earned.  

Indeed, a negotiation which hadn't gone nuclear might have resulted in an even better contract -- think of the affordability of a $2000/yr internet residual if the Studios didn't have strike losses to recoup.

Now that the Strike is over however, I will assume that my writers are part of the 93% who voted to end the catastrophe.  I'm happy that we're all back to work (or getting there).

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

IT'S OVER!!

The Writers have overwhelmingly voted to return to work.  The Strike is over!!

Writers return to work tomorrow.  Cast and Crew should be right behind them.

Fingers crossed that SAG starts talks really soon.  (Like, tomorrow would be good).

I'll post my wrap up of the Strike this weekend.  In the meantime, I welcome everyone's comments -- good, bad, otherwise.

Best of luck to everyone.  Let's hope the rest of the year is busy for all.


Sunday, February 10, 2008

It's Over! (Soon)

By all accounts, the WGA meetings went very well yesterday.  

The Guild Leadership changed their minds about lifting the Strike today, however, swayed by some prominent Writers (and United Hollywood admins) who felt that the Membership would feel better if they got to vote before the Strike was lifted.

As I said on UH yesterday, when this idea was floated out there, I agree with this in principle, but only if it seems the vote might be close.  If the vote was going to be a slam dunk, I argued, then all the Guild would be doing is delaying people's misery by an extra two days, just so the Writers could have a nice little feel-good moment.

The Deal is going to pass overwhelmingly.

But the Writers still want their feel-good moment.  So the rest of the town will suffer for an extra couple of days.  But at least the pain will be blunted by the fact that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually sunshine, and not a train...

It should also be worth noting that not lifting the Strike until after a vote is technically a violation of the conditions of the Deal.  Now, I don't expect a 48-hour vote (as opposed to a 10-day vote) to derail anything -- the Studios aren't THAT crazy -- but it's worth noting nonetheless.

Finally, before anyone goes out and makes some big celebratory purchases, it's important to understand that SAG's contract expiration still looms large on the horizon.

Most people feel secure that SAG will successfully pattern their deal off of the WGA deal, but their stance in this whole affair has grown increasingly militant.  The industry is definitely going to want to take their pulse before greenlighting projects that extend past June 30.

Pessimism aside, the fact that the Writers have finally got their contract is great news for all of Hollywood and great news for the Writers.  When all is said and done, the strike will have been 100 days, and they will have a contract that gives them the most important thing: jurisdiction over new media.

And it's going to pass the vote.

Whenever hope sprang up in the negotiations, my constant refrain was "cross your fingers, but don't hold your breath."  Now it's time to hold your breath... we're almost done.

I would especially urge any non-writers who are critical of the deal (or the path to it) to stay silent for a couple of days.  If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.  Don't put anything out there that could potentially derail the Deal (and thereby continue the Strike) until after it is signed.

There will be plenty of time for a Strike post-mortem AFTER the Strike is over.

That should be right around Wednesday!

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Is That The Finish Line I See?

It came down to the last hour, but the deal language got resolved, and the WGA has reached a tentative agreement with the AMPTP.

The deal will be discussed in general assembly meetings in both NY and LA.

The board will decide tomorrow (Sunday) whether to lift the Strike or continue, based primarily on their belief that the deal will or will not be ratified by the Membership.

The deal points can be read here.

The biggest problem this contract faces is Hard-Liners' hatred of the 17-day promotional window for streaming reuse.  My guess is that, though truly hated, this provision will not be enough to derail the deal.

The argument will be "do we really want to strike for another 4 months just to get that down to 10 days?  Let SAG be the bad guys now -- see if they can get it."

Fingers are crossed.  This should be a deal good enough (especially with Verrone and Young's endorsement) to get the Strike lifted tomorrow.

Writers will be back to work on Monday.  Crews should be back days later.

Friday, February 8, 2008

The Moment (err... Weekend) Of Truth

On Saturday, the WGA will present the new proposal to the general membership at meetings on both coasts (assuming the legalese is properly worked out by midnight tonight -- which is not a foregone conclusion).

Strike Captains were shown the proposal today and, per an article on United Hollywood, this is the state of affairs:

Patric Verrone, Michael Winship, David Young, and John Bowman are all recommending the deal. They think it’s a good one – not perfect – but a good solid deal that we would never have gotten if we hadn’t have gone out on strike. They believe we got every last penny on the table. 

The negotiating team will go over the proposal, point by point, with the Membership.

If a majority of the assembly seems happy with the Terms of Agreement, and will likely ratify it – the greater board will take this into consideration when they meet on Sunday. Then, on Sunday they will vote on whether or not to lift the strike, and send everyone back to work on Monday. They will only vote to lift it if they feel that the majority of membership likes the deal and will ratify it. If that's the case – we go back to work on Monday.


It is now up to the Writers.  If the Hard-Liners sway enough people, the Strike will continue until at least June 30.  If the moderates prevail, the Strike That Never Should Have Been will finally be over.

The most important thing right now is for 1) the lawyers to finish up by midnight and 2) for all those Writers who swore by Verrone and Young at the beginning to be true to their words now.  Even if you aren't crazy with the deal, you have to trust your leadership.  Believe it or not, they may actually have a better understanding of how the negotiations have been going than you do.

Hopefully, clear minds and level heads will rule the day.

And then everyone else can get back to work.  Finally.

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Note: I have edited this post to remove a line about Verrone and Young which, though I still stand behind it, I felt was distracting from the point at hand and was looking at a possible outcome which I do not feel is likely.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

WGA To Present Terms Of A Deal This Weekend

The WGA is going to present terms of a deal to the Membership on Saturday.  

This really could be "it"....

From Verrone and Winship, in the latest official WGA email to members:

As Negotiating Committee Chair John Bowman wrote you last night, we are continuing to negotiate the terms of a tentative agreement with the AMPTP. We anticipate that we will be able to present the terms of that agreement to you in the next few days.

While the Los Angeles meeting will be at 7:00pm on Saturday, the New York Meeting will be at 2:00pm local time.  Which means we will likely have word about the terms of the deal by noon on the West Coast.

It has been reported that, as part of the negotiations, the WGA will call off the Strike when the NegCom agrees in principal with the deal, as opposed to after an official Membership vote.

This means that, if things go well, Friday may be the last day of the Strike.  Cross your fingers, but don't count your chickens...

I have heard from several sources that production for most shows in the 2007-08 season will resume within a couple weeks of the Strike's end.  I've heard most shows will be looking to do anywhere from 5-8 episodes to finish out a truncated season.  It is likely, however, that some shows will not return this year.

For shows that do return, it is likley that SitComs will start shooting about 2 weeks after the end of the Strike and Dramas will take a week longer to start shooting.  Each show is unique, however, and some will take longer to get back up to speed.

Best of luck to everyone, and may cooler heads prevail.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Call For Posts

I am humbled and grateful that so many people have found this site and use it for real debate of the issues around the Strike.

I hate to be hogging all the front page space.

If anyone would like to post an article on the front page, please let me know at unite(at)dividedhollywood(dot)com.  [The (at) and (dot) are to prevent autospammers].

This offer is open to anyone, no matter what their stance on the Strike.

Depending on interest, I may give some people access to post directly.  Otherwise, I might post on their behalf.  I won't edit anything without your permission.  If I decide not to post an article, I'll do my best to make my reasons clear.

As always, the comments section remains unmoderated.

Wire Services Report Big Progress

Take this with a grain of salt, but the AP and Reuters are reporting that major hurdles have been cleared and a deal could be announced by the end of the week.

The deal would still have to be ratified by the WGA Membership.

No word on how this made it through a news blackout, or which side leaked it.  It could be an AMPTP trick.

Keep your fingers crossed, but don't hold your breath.

Read the Reuters report here.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Weekend Special - Open Post For The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

A comment from the previous post was looking for an open post in which everyone -- pro & con -- could express their views on the Strike.

As you probably know, comments from all points of view are always welcome here, even anonymously.

But here's an opportunity for everyone to express views, concerns or questions which are not tied to any one specific topic (other than the Strike itself).

If this gets too far off track, I may close the comments (to this post only) on Monday morning.

Otherwise, have at it...

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Hardliners' Voices Rise Above The Moderates

It's been nearly two weeks since the DGA announced that it had reached a deal with the Studios, thereby averting a Directors' Strike and also, in theory, laying the foundation for the Striking Writers to secure a similar deal.

Initial response from Hardline Writers was as expected: "This is the worst deal in the history of deals."  

The rest of Hollywood saw the merits of the deal and, when the WGA NegCom and the AMPTP restarted negotiations (although informally), most of us collectively and optimistically held our breaths. 

The beginning of this week brought rumors that a deal was imminent, and perhaps it is.  But as the week has drawn on, there is a growing sense that the hardline view is actually starting to take hold.

People are still buying into the "Sky Is Falling" fear that reruns are going to disappear.  This is lemming-like conspiracy-based fear at its most insane.  The idea is so farfetched as to be comical, yet folks are falling for Mallory Keaton's warped (though obviously very earnest) view.

The boogeyman is everywhere...

Now the SAG president is squashing the deal.  Respected Writer-Director Phil Alden Robinson is writing (rather eloquently) about how bad it is.

I understand that this deal is not the pie in the sky deal that anyone wanted.  I even get that some realistic goals were not met -- I thought the streaming residual would come in at around $2000, for example (which is a number that might as well be $1200 as far as many hardliners are concerned).

But I urge these writers -- again -- to really lay out what they realistically expect to gain in a contract that is not currently there.  And, again, what price are they willing to pay?  What price are they expecting the rest of us to pay?

Is it worth another 6 months of strike in order to get jurisdiction for Reality?  Is it worth 3 months to get $4000 for streaming?

Cos guess what?  A lot of us don't think it is worth it.  We're done with this strike, which NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN.

We're sick of the financial losses.

We don't want to lose our homes.

We are sick of you flushing the present down the drain in exchange for a future that would be uncertain even with the bestest, most wonderful contract ever conceived by man, woman, or unicorn.

The DGA deal is an excellent template.  If tweaks can be made without derailing the whole process, fine.  But it is time to get Hollywood back to work.

This Strike has produced some dividends.  It's time to cash in. 

Sign the deal.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Both Sides Are Talking

It's been a few days since posting something new, but there hasn't been much to post about.

This is a good thing.

Writers and Producers are talking.  Writers have removed demands for Animation and Reality (which were, no offense to writers in those fields, obvious bluffs all along).

Both sides seem to be honoring a news blackout.

Dissection of the DGA deal continues, but the rhetoric seems to have fallen sharply.

Good luck to both sets of negotiators.  Figure this thing out and let's all get back to work!

Monday, January 21, 2008

The Irrational Fear That Reruns Will Disappear

One of the popular "problems" with the DGA deal (and past proposals) which keeps getting repeated like Gospel, is the idea that television reruns are going away and that soon all repeats will only be on the internet.  

The fear mongering argument then says that any money in this area, short of $20,000 (the current residual for a one-hour program) is a roll back.  Writers are going to go broke, claim the writer radicals, because their residuals will vanish.

The problem with this "problem?"  It's completely false.

Content is indeed shifting to the internet, and in a big way.  The issue, though, is who is watching it there.  The answer?  First time viewers.

People are watching more and more of their favorite TV shows online.  But they are watching it there instead of on TV, not in addition to TV.

The bigger problem with the Fear of Disappearing Residuals is that those afflicted can't come up with an answer to what will replace these supposed vanishing reruns.

If there's an empty timeslot on CBS' Monday Night Schedule, what do you think they're going to air?  The answer is simple CSI: Miami Repeat.  Why?  Because even if NBC airs a brand new episode of Studio 60, The Black Donnelleys or Journeyman; guess what show wins the timeslot?  CSI: Miami Repeat does.  Don't believe me?  Look up the last two years worth of Neilsons.

And, okay, I grant you that CSI: Miami is a hit show, and the WGA is striking for all writers, not just those on crappy David Caruso vehicles (nice shades, dude).

Let's take our dearly departed Journeyman then.  Assume for a moment that the show was still on the air.  March rolls around.  It's not Sweeps.  You could air a new episode, but you want to keep it for later.

So what is NBC to do?  According to the No More Reruns folks, NBC can't repeat an episode of Journeyman to catch up someone who hasn't watched from the beginning and still doesn't quite get why Dan Vasser travels through time, but never bangs his ex-girlfriend.

Well, if they can't rerun something (doomsday scenario), doesn't this mean that they have to -- gasp -- air something original instead?!?  And wouldn't this mean that there's a Writer somewhere getting first episode money instead of much lower rerun money??  Isn't this a GOOD THING??

Or is NBC more likely to just go black for the hour?  Seriously, they can't compete against CSI: Miami (ignore for the purposes of this argument that THEY are in repeats), so NBC should just throw in the towel and go dark, or let the late local news come on early so we can get extra footage of the Butt Naked Bandit.

In short, repeats -- to the detriment of the Television Viewer -- are not going anywhere.  They are a staple of American Network Programming and they are here to stay.  And all those cable channels?  They've got even more reruns than the big 4.

Streaming Media moolah is fresh, delicious moolah.  If you want more, go out and get it; but don't do it out of fear that stale old rerun moolah is going anywhere.  That garden is mighty green for years and years to come.

A Response to Nikki Finke's Shitty Column

As has already been reported, Nikki Finke's first column back since falling ill was titled first "Is That Shitty DGA Deal The Only Deal", and is now titled "That Shitty Deal Is At Least A Start."

Muckraking "journalism" at it's finest...

But I'll give her a tiny little bit of props for actually allowing some anti-Nikki comments to post.  I especially liked this gem, which completely sums up my feelings about DHD:

You probably won’t post this and that’s a shame. But I’ll comment anyway, futile as it may be. I come from a family of instigators, where someone will say to someone else that so-and-so said this awful thing about them, fueling anger and resentment on both sides. Most of the time, these gossiping family members think they’re “doing a good deed for the greater good of the family”, when in fact, they’re simply creating an atagonistic environment. What they really must do instead is: let people resolve issues amongst themselves. And that’s what you need to do with the strike. By posting your “shitty DGA deal” comment, you’re again fanning of the fires of radicalism. Which is what this strike has become. A radical, irrational shit-throwing war. Rational people in the WGA are muzzled by louder, angrier and bitter people in the WGA. Notice how progress was made in your absence, without your snarky editorials. Bottom line: you’re not really in the movie and TV biz, Nikki, you just report on it, yet inexplicably your comments can arguably iffluence the position of many people who are actually WORKERS in this town. Look, you do some very good reporting, but right now, you’re getting involved in something you shouldn’t be getting involved in by fanning the flames. So use your power wisely. I know you try to, but at times, like today, you do nothing but make a bad situation worse. Just like people in my family do. I see it all the time and believe me, people like you do no one any good.

Posted by "Rational Thinker".

If This Deal Was On The Table In October...

UPDATE - I'm moving this post back to the top, because I think discussion of the DGA Deal and it's impact on the WGA Strike is more interesting than a discussion of what's happening behind the scenes over at United Hollywood...

----------

Bloggers and commenters seem to be split on the value and merits of the DGA deal, especially when discussing whether the WGA should sign the same deal.

The most common refrain is something along the lines of "we didn't strike all this time to get that deal."

This is a common emotional response to negotiations, but it is the wrong way to look at the deal that's on the table (or soon to be, in this case).

What's done is done and it can't be changed.  So the Writers have to try to forget (for a moment) that they've been on Strike and look at this deal with fresh eyes.  They need to examine its merits and its faults and weigh whether it is acceptable versus an alternative of months more striking in exchange for an uncertain deal.

In short, pretend that the Strike never happened.  Pretend that the WGA MBA expires on January 30.  The DGA deal is presented by the AMPTP.  Do you take it?

If the AMPTP had been this reasonable way back in October, would this deal have been good enough to avoid a Strike?

If the answer is yes, then every businessperson in the world, every economics professor, would say you should sign the deal now.

If the answer is no, then you have more work ahead of you.  Now you have to determine what you might realistically gain by Striking.  And that has to be compared to the costs of Striking.

In all likelihood, a WGA dismissal of this deal would amount to a Strike which lasted until July or August.  The AMPTP would have more leverage than they have had at any time during this Strike.  And they have large coffers.  They won't budge from this, at least not in the short term.

This Strike has lasted 2 1/2 months.  Are you financially ready to go 6 months more?

There would likely be a wave of Fi-Core writers.  Maybe it's a handful, maybe it's dozens, maybe it's a hundred or more.  But no close observer of this Strike could honestly believe that the entire Guild would hold strong after rejecting a deal that many of its Members believe to be good.  How would this affect the Strike and the negotiations?

Finally, what is the added benefit that the additional strike would earn?  Could you get $2000 for new media streaming?  Is that worth 6 months of Strike and defections of the Membership?  Could you get Reality and Animation jurisdiction?  Would that make up for the current Members that you would lose?

This deal is not perfect.  In fact, it's far from perfect.  But this deal is good.  In fact, it's actually very good.  It offers new payments and jurisdiction that the WGA never had before.  And it forms the foundation for the next contract, when you can negotiate for an even bigger portion of the pie.

This deal is worth signing.  

Please, approve the deal and let's all get back to work.

Friday, January 18, 2008

New, Increased Moderation Of Comments At United Hosting

UPDATE - Comments are up and the debate appears a little less one-sided.  I've been in contact with one of the people that run United Hollywood and have been assured that they are working to keep the comment moderation fair.  They admit that mistakes happen, but they seem genuine when they say they are working to minimize that.

It would obviously be great if there was no moderation, but I believe them when they say that they receive a ton of truly nasty comments as well as pure spam.

-----------------

For everyone reading with fear all the negative comments at United Hollywood about this deal, know that you are only reading one side of the story.

Despite having a cordial and respectful posting relationship with United Hosting in the past, I am disappointed to report that my last two comments have not been posted to their corresponding stories.

Neither of my posts were inflammatory nor irrational.  Writers may or may not agree with the comments, but dissent has always been tolerated at United Hollywood.

John Aboud has even posted one of my suggestions on the front page there.  I have always been appreciative of their open-mindedness and, for the most part, their moderate (though obviously WGA-leaning) stance.  

I have commented repeatedly that I would stop posting if I was asked to. 

I was never asked.  I was deleted.

----------

For the record, my most recent comment actually was posted, but was deleted within 30 minutes.  The comment before that does not appear to have ever been posted.

The comments in question can be seen on this blog, under "If This Deal Was On The Table In October..." and "DGA Has Reached A Deal!"

Regular Divided Hollywood commenter TranspoBill also reports that his last 6 comments have not been posted.

United Hollywood's Post A Comment instructions still read "Rational debate and discussion from any perspective is welcome, and will never be deleted. "

Thursday, January 17, 2008

DGA Has Reached A Deal!

The DGA has announced that is has struck a new deal with the AMPTP which includes doubling the DVD residual for all Internet Downloads (such as iTunes), and a new residual for Internet Streaming (such as NBC.com).


While the internet streaming residual is likely lower than what WGA members were hoping for (2 payments of $600 -- first after 17 days, and again after 26 weeks), it is important, I think, to put this into perspective.  This deal would give WGA jurisdiction over the internet, which has to be the number one concern at this stage.  It also gives the Guild payments based on Distributor's Gross, which was key.


The most important thing to remember is that WGA could sign this deal now, and revisit the actual dollar amounts in three years.  Hell, they could even strike again! (Note to WGA -- just because the previous strike was 20 years ago doesn't mean you HAVE to wait for 7 more contracts before using the Strike Threat Leverage again).


My initial reaction (which I'm sure is no surprise to anyone) is that this deal appears to be a good one.  It is lower than what the Writers hoped for, I'm sure.


The question is, are they ready to stay out for another 6 months in order to get an extra $1200 or so per episode from the Studios?


I hope not.

IF there were a DGA Deal now, what would it mean?

There's yet another rumor that the DGA deal is done. Especially considering what happened earlier in the week, I would take this with an even bigger grain of salt than usual (is UnitedHollywood the new DeadlineHollwoodDaily?).  

I personally heard rumblings about this yesterday, but chose not to post it because, well, who knows anything for sure (besides those actually in the room -- and I'm not in the room!)...  
 
As a general note, I'd find it almost impossible to believe that the DGA would sign a deal -- after only a week -- that wasn't good enough for WGA.  

But who knows?  

If there really is a DGA deal, then we are at a major tipping point in the strike. Either the WGA will sign a similar deal within the next week or two, or this will go through the end of Summer.  

There's really no middle ground that I can see.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Random Selection Continues, Approval Falls

A few quick items in todays news:

1) Rumor of a DGA settlement seems to be just that - a rumor.

2) Grammys are now the latest Awards Show to get denied an individual deal.  NAACP Image Awards, well those are just fine.  This brings the current tally to:

SAG and NAACP -- the Writers like you.  They really, really like you.

Oscars, Golden Globes, Grammys -- why can't you be more like your siblings SAG and NAACP?

3) ABC 7 / Survey USA Poll asked people who they favor in the Writers Strike.  

In November, the results were:

Writers: 69%
Studios: 8%
Neither: 23%

This week, the results were:

Writers: 57%
Studios: 8%
Neither: 35%

That's a twelve point drop in support for the Writers in two months.  No one's dumb enough to throw support behind the Studios, who have been acting completely irresponsibly.  But people are getting hip to the fact that there's plenty of blame to go around for this disaster.

Monday, January 14, 2008

DGA Deal?

United Hollywood is posting a rumor, which is apparently spreading like wildfire, that the DGA has reached an agreement with the AMPTP.

The deal, which is expected to be announced tomorrow (Tuesday), would seem (to me at least) to signal that the Directors have obtained a contract which would likely be agreeable to the Writers, assuming of course that the rumor is true.

As I have posted before, I have an extremely well-placed source who assures me that the DGA Negotiating Committee is acutely aware of what the Writers need to see in a contract that they could sign.  This same source predicted that the DGA deal would be done extremely quickly (though he thought it would be longer than this).

One would have to believe that the DGA would not settle so quickly if they were not able to satisfy the Writers' needs as well.

Further evidence that the deal, if real, is likely agreeable to the Writers is that several Studios(Warners, CBS, Universal, Fox) cut Writers' deal today.  The all directly cited the Writers' Strike as the direct reason for the cuts.

Fingers crossed!

UPDATE 11:23PM Monday - There hasn't been much else reported on this in the blogosphere or traditional press.  It's possible the rumor was started by the axe falling simultaneously at four studios, as opposed to it being an existing story which was fueled by the layoffs.

As with any and all rumors in this Strike, keep up hope; but don't fall prey to false expectations.  Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Pardon Me While I Rant...

I gotta say, I am super frustrated with the comments on United Hollywood and the direction that it is going.  For the past several weeks, the quantity and quality of comments has plummeted.  I originally wrote this off to the holidays, but the brain freeze continues.

First, the moderation of comments has really turned discussion into a series of time-separated opinions.  That is to say, the discussion is gone.

Second, and more importantly, the voices that remain just seem like total drank-the-kool-aid types.  There's seemingly no rational thought over there.  It's hard-line party-line the whole way.

I'm not saying that because people disagree with me that they're automatically wrong.  But no one is even open to the idea that there might be other ideas out there.

Any idea that might possibly have benefits for the AMPTP is automatically dismissed -- no matter how much benefit is might ALSO HAVE for the WGA.

These folks are in serious "cut off your nose to spite your face" mode.

The list of mistakes that have been made by the WGA leadership in this Strike is profound.  Any attempt to prevent future mistakes is met with a lemming-like loyalty to the Guild that would be laughable if it weren't so disturbing.

I am more and more convinced that the only hope we have is that the DGA get a good enough deal, and soon.  I mean, we knew this going into 2008, but it is more apparent than ever.  If WGA doesn't sign whatever deal DGA gets, this Strike is going to go through August or September.

I know that the commenters on UH are not the negotiating committee of the WGA.  But they used to be better than the Neg-Com.  If they still are, we're all screwed.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Is Bill Maher An AMPTP Shill?

Real Time With Bill Maher returned with a new show this evening on HBO.  Maher ditched his opening sketch, launched into a monologue in front of a new set piece, had a satellite interview with PJ O'Rourke, went into the Round Table, brought in a reporter, and then, near the end of the show, brought up the Strike.

Maher said he purposefully waited until the end of the show to discuss the Strike, because he felt it was important to put things in perspective and, in the middle of Presidential Primaries, the Strike simply is not as important to America as it is to Hollywood.

And then Bill Maher nervously ripped into the WGA leadership.

He drew the exact same analogy Divided Hollywood has been using since this site was started in November -- that critics of the WGA, its leadership, or it's tactics are treated by the WGA faithful the exact same way that critics of the Iraq War are treated by the Bush Administration.

This is something I fleshed out in more detail than did Maher, and you can see the poster I created -- on November 20 -- here.

Maher publicly questioned whether this was "the right strike at the right time," echoing familiar questions about the Iraq War.

Our friends at United Hollywood (and I honestly do consider them friends, though I disagree with them on so many things) recently posted that Writers should feel free to voice dissent, so long as they stopped short of "pulling a Ridley" and went Fi-Core.

There would be no backlash, the post went, so long as the dissent was honest and not meant to divide.  Well, Bill Maher has put himself out there, and didn't look too comfortable doing it.  His discomfort was understandable -- who wants to berate his family in front of a national audience?

But Bill has always spoken his mind and has lost jobs because of it.  The question is, will Writers embrace him anyway?

Or will they attack him -- as they attack so many of us with legitimate concerns -- as another AMPTP shill?

DGA Talks To Begin

Formal negotiations between the DGA and the AMPTP are set to begin tomorrow (Saturday).  Both sides are calling for media blackout until negotiations are concluded.

I have a well-placed source who tells me that members of the WGA Board and Negotiating Committee met in December with members of the DGA NegCom and detailed their bottom-line needs in a contract.

Presumably, if DGA can write in these minimum requirements (or better), then WGA will be prepared to sign nearly the same deal, and the strike can be concluded within days of the DGA deal.

This same source repeats what we've repeatedly heard from the Guild, however, that if the DGA deal is not up to their standards, the WGA will not sign it.  Period.  They are very prepared for the strike to continue.

Good luck to the DGA.  And here's hoping that the AMPTP decides to "save face" by being the consummate fair negotiators with DGA...

Let's get a deal and get back to work.

(PS - SAG is still on the horizon.)

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Another Awards Celebration Down - WGA?!

In a sign that the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing, the WGAw announced that they were canceling their awards celebration at the Bonaventure Hotel (a non-televised gala).

The WGAe, who holds a simultaneous event in NY, knew nothing about it.

Frankly, I don't think the WGA should hold an awards ceremony in the middle of a strike, especially when they're shutting down other, broader awards.

But the fact that East and West can't get on the same page about it is one of the few humorous episodes to emerge from this debacle.  They wonder why they're losing the war on the PR front...

Strike Casualties Continue To Add Up - ICM, WB

The strike continues and more people are out of work (or soon to be) because of it.

The Hollywood Reporter writes that ICM has sent several lit agents home, though they get strike pay and will come back when the strike is over.  So far, no assistants at the majors have been laid off.  

Assistants and staffers at many smaller agencies, however, have been let go and some of those are leaving the business for good.

Meanwhile Warner Brothers has notified many of its staffers and facilities employees that they may be next.

ABC Nightly News covered one casualty on its nationwide broadcast the other night - a craft service person with 20 years' experience who has already lost over $20,000 and has no real options right now.

I'm sure there are many who have lost much more.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Golden Globes Scrapped - Will Oscar Fall, Too?

Yesterday, the gala event that is the Golden Globes was axed.  In its place will be a one-hour press conference, to be covered by NBC News, in which the winners will be announced.

NBC will also have cameras at Golden Globes parties - if there are any - and will give winners a chance to appear on camera.

The Writers' pressure to completely lock down the awards show - no writers, no actors, no presenters - finally led to the compromise as the HFPA tried to salvage some version of its awards, long used as an early indicator of the Oscars.

It remains unclear whether any stars will appear.

As we look forward now to the Oscars, the WGA might want to consider a different course of action.  They got the press they wanted and the ounce of flesh they craved from NBC, but should they also attempt to bring down the granddaddy of all awards?

It is important to remember that the AMPAS, which awards the Oscars, is not the AMPTP.  Also, AMPAS has not yet asked for a waiver or an interim deal, so granting one when the request comes in would not be a capitulation on the part of the Guild.

Here's a quick look at a number of reasons why the WGA should work with, not against, AMPAS:

1) The Oscars show is the single biggest and most important celebration of our industry each year.

2) There can be no doubt but that nearly every single winner and presenter will be pro-WGA and will make very strong statements as such - for over three hours!

3) 11 of the 24 categories -- nearly half -- honor below-the-line achievements.  Other than best song and, to a lesser extent, composer; these nominations are the only opportunity these very talented artisans ever have to be acknowledged on a national (much less worldwide) stage.

4) There are numerous ways to allow the show to go on.  The WGA could grant an interim deal.  The WGA could grant a waiver.  The WGA could deny a deal or a waiver, but not picket.  The WGA could picket, but in tuxedos and off to the side -- get the press, but allow (even encourage) nominees to attend.

5) The symbolism of being against the Oscars could do more harm than good.

Take a moment to enjoy the show with the rest of us, Writers.  Allow yourselves a chance to celebrate the past year.  It was a great one.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Side Deals A-Plenty, Sorta

UPDATE: The UA deal has been officially announced. It is, according to a WGA letter to Members, "virtually identical" to the WWP deal.

WGA is likely to announce a deal with United Artists today which is similar to the WorldWide Pants deal which allowed David Letterman and Craig Ferguson to return to the air with their writers.

Rumors are also swirling that similar deals are being discussed with Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company.

Meanwhile Dick Clark Productions, the company behind the Golden Globes telecast, has been unable to work out a deal. NBC is finally giving serious consideration to canceling the telecast. If the broadcast is canceled, the awards ceremony could still go on, only without pickets and with full attendance of the evening's nominees, including writers and actors.

DCP has maintained that they are not AMPTP signatories and would sign the same deal which was signed by WWP. WGA has offered no public explanation why they won't sign a deal with DCP. Rumors and blog comments suggest that WGA does not want to give NBC advertising revenue, and wants to deny AMPTP members the promotional aspect of the telecast.

This rationale does not make sense, however, since identical arguments could be made about the WWP deal. CBS gets advertising revenue from those broadcasts, and Alliance Members can freely send stars to Letterman and Ferguson to promote their upcoming releases.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Presidential Politics

I want to take a break from the Strike for a moment to address an issue which, in the long-term, is more important: Presidential Politics.

After watching the Iowa Caucuses and the two-party debate in New Hampshire, I have decided to endorse (for whatever THAT'S worth!) Sen. Barack Obama for president.

All this talk of being "the candidate of change" is nice, but what's really important are the candidate's ideas, in the scope of our nation's history, and Obama may be the one candidate capable of uniting the people of this nation and putting us back on the path to greatness as a country.

For twenty years, two families have held the White House. Do we really want to extend that streak to 24 or 28? Do we really want history to record a list of presidents that goes Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton? Certainly this alone is not reason to vote against Hillary. But the underlying meaning is that we need to look forward, not back.

Barack Obama for President.

Barack Obama Logo

(I promise, this will be my only post about politics for politics' sake. Thank you for indulging me.)

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Stewart, Colbert Claim WGA Playing Favorites

Today's NY Times is claiming that The Daily Show and The Colbert Report, which return with new shows on Monday, have been trying to reach an agreement with the WGA that would allow them to return with their union writers (both hosts are WGA Members).

They are apparently willing to sign the same deal as Letterman and "have contended in negotiations with the guild that they have just as much right to an agreement and that to deny them would amount to favoritism to Mr. Letterman. But as of Friday no deal had been made."

The mention was part of a larger article which also states the WGA will likely dole out some form of punishment to Jay Leno for continuing to writer his own monologues, an action which the WGA claims breaks their Strike Rules.

Recent scuttlebutt has Leno on the verge of going Fi-Core, which would raise the possibility of  Jimmy Kimmel, Colbert and Stewart soon following his lead.  All have been staunch supporters of the Guild to date.

WGA Staffers Are Set To Picket WGA Itself

In this article from the NY Post, we learn that sometimes Unions are also management...

Apparently the staff of the WGAe are part of the Newspaper Guild.  They negotiated a new contract with WGA in October, but the WGA has yet to sign it.  Further, the Staffers' Union alleges that the WGA changed the numbers on the contract after it was ratified.

The Newspaper Guild has filed a complaint with the National Labor Resource Board and may go on strike!

Word from WGAe: "Doh!"

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Pitfalls Are Plenty For StrikeTV

The latest gambit by the Writers, as their strike drags on with no end in sight, is to create their own internet channel to distribute their own original content and earn advertising revenue from it.

It’s an intriguing idea and, with proceeds promised to a Solidarity Fund (give financial assistance to members of other unions who are hurt by the strike), this could turn out to be added leverage at the bargaining table and a big morale booster all around.

Of course, that’s the best case scenario.

The problem with StrikeTV is all the complications it is likely to encounter.

Most importantly, the viability of StrikeTV goes to the very core of the stated reason for the strike in the first place -- the financial windfall that internet distribution promises.

What if the money doesn’t come in?  What if the product isn’t any good or, worse, is too expensive to make a profit?

StrikeTV could quickly backfire.  Suddenly, the AMPTP could point to it and say, “See?  It’s not so easy, is it?”

I’m not saying StrikeTV won’t work.  I’m saying the odds are stacked against it, and therefore the Writers need to approach it not with their usual temerity, but instead with the forethought of an attorney cross-examining a hostile witness.  Most importantly, the Writers-cum-producers-cum-network-executives need to do some serious homework and some major-league preparation.

Here are just a few of the potential stumbling blocks:

1) Union cast and crew.  Let’s face it -- we’re generally pretty decently-paid artisans (when we’re working).  This means that even the most humble of productions is going to be pretty expensive once you start using IA crews and SAG talent.

Sure, projects which will donate all present and future revenue to strike funds can probably use an all-volunteer cast and crew.  But what about projects where the Writer-Producer retains the rights and the potential to earn future revenue?  This is an aspect of the productions which is being heavily promoted by StrikeTV.

In this case, Union Cast & Crew should be properly compensated at Union Scale.  Barring that, if Union Waivers can be obtained, then the Crew should at least participate in the Distributor’s Gross Revenue -- it’s what Writers claim is fair, so they’re basically obligated to offer it on their own projects.

We’ve been told that StrikeTV is working hard to figure out the best way to manage this tricky situation, and we are giving them the benefit of the doubt that something reasonable will be worked out before productions begin.

But the problem here is that this already dangerously close to proving the AMPTP’s claim that internet distribution is not viably profitable right now.

2) Production Value.  There is more to creating a good show than just writing it.  You must have good people to make it (see above), but you must also have deep resources to create the look that you want.

This means good cameras, plenty of lights, proper sets and locations, good props, microphones, trucks, etc.

And that all costs money.  Even if you’re calling in favors, that costs money.

The overall quality of the shows is going to depend in part on how good they look and sound.  No one should be tuning in expecting to see something as lush and exotic as Lost, or as gritty and raw as Law & Order; but they still can’t be underwhelmed -- it’s got to look good. 

3) Advertising Revenue.  This is the single most important aspect of this whole enterprise, at least in terms of StrikeTV’s bearing on the outcome of the Strike itself.

This experiment simply can not afford to fail in this regard -- each show MUST MAKE MONEY.  Not only that, the money has to be serious.  Think about this.  If StrikeTV doesn’t earn, at an absolute minimum,$2500 per show, then how can the Writers who run it justify their claim that a Writer of an episode of Bionic Woman should get more that $250 for an internet repeat?

(The value of any WGA deal has to be multiplied by 10 in order to take into account all of the other Union residuals which would result from pattern bargaining -- therefore a $250 Writer’s residual actually amounts to $2500 in total residuals).

Don’t misunderstand me here -- I’m not suggesting that the $250 fee which was proposed by the AMPTP last month was even close to fair.  What I am saying, though, is that if you can’t definitively prove otherwise, you should keep the evidence off the table.

SUMMARY

I don’t have enough information to say whether or not StrikeTV will work or fail; whether it will begin some boon cycle for internet production, or become another InnerTube-like victim of simply “not getting it” when it comes to internet distribution.

But I wonder if the folks running StrikeTV know either.

We basically got into this mess of a strike because the WGA “best cased” the outcome.  I don’t want to see the Strike prolonged because someone repeated that mistake.

The best case in StrikeTV is that the AMPTP is cast aside and Writers / Directors / Actors / Anyone-with-a-creative-bone-in-their-body will discover a method to make money with their productions on the internet.

The worst case is that StrikeTV will prove to be undeniable proof that the Writers need the Studios more than the Studios need the Writers.

The reality is likely to be somewhere in between.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Happy New Year?

It's January 1; a day that is supposed to be greeted with hope and optimism.  


This year, however, is starting with fear, anger, sadness, anxiety.  And failure.  


Our industry is mired in a strike which has completely stalled. 


In a time when we should be looking forward, we are forced first to look back.  What were the architects of the walk-out thinking?  Was this ever a course of action which was going to result in any greater gains for the Members than the alternative?  Was there ever a chance it would lead to a shorter, less costly path to a contract than any of the other options?  Did the Leadership, or Members, ever ponder for a moment that there were indeed other options?


This strike was born of hubris.  Its life is therefore bound to be defined by pain, regret and remorse.  We can only hope that its life will be short.  But did today’s Doctors Frankenstein expect their monster to live so long and create so much devastation as it has already?


And what of the vision going forward?  Where will the Guild take us now?  What is the plan?  


What, too, of the aloof, irresponsible Producers?  Dare we hope that the Studios seize the opportunity to end the suffering and get back to the business of entertainment?  Will they see that when you’re after getting the honey, then you don’t go killing all the bees?


Or will both sides stay the course of name-calling, finger-pointing, and digging in their heels? 


New Year’s Day is a symbolic time for new beginnings, a bright start, renewed purpose and fresh resolutions.  Writers and Producers both should take heed of the time, as it is your common enemy.  


One may outlast the other, but by then both may find that time has passed you by and, in so doing, irrevocably damaged our once-fantastic dream factory and eroded the previously bountiful landscape of Hollywood into a sad, desolate wasteland.


It’s January 1.  Hope survives.  Optimism is gone...


But it could return.