I have a well-placed source who tells me that members of the WGA Board and Negotiating Committee met in December with members of the DGA NegCom and detailed their bottom-line needs in a contract.
Presumably, if DGA can write in these minimum requirements (or better), then WGA will be prepared to sign nearly the same deal, and the strike can be concluded within days of the DGA deal.
This same source repeats what we've repeatedly heard from the Guild, however, that if the DGA deal is not up to their standards, the WGA will not sign it. Period. They are very prepared for the strike to continue.
Good luck to the DGA. And here's hoping that the AMPTP decides to "save face" by being the consummate fair negotiators with DGA...
Let's get a deal and get back to work.
(PS - SAG is still on the horizon.)
6 comments:
Yeah! Go get 'em DGA! At least there is SOME hope here in this news, though to read the comments over on DH you wouldn't think so. (yes, I was weak and read the comments on her gossip rag...)
If they can get a good offer which sets an appropriate residual scale for the rest of the unions then they will have a very hard time getting any support to prolong the strike.
TranspoBill
Agreed Transpobill
We've had some good news finally. And, I do like the idea of the A listers trying to do a summit of sorts. At least some things are getting attempted, and not sitting on our fricking hands.
A standing O to all those trying to solve this!
The news today from the DGA is the first positive solid information I have heard since October. I am encouraged by the fact that the DGA committee and the AMPTP side are willing to negotiate 7 days a week if that is what it will take to get a fair contract and get everyone back to work. This does not guarantee a quick resolution. I still expect things to take a while - as I have said, up to 2 months. But I'll be the first to happily admit being wrong if the negotiators come up with something we can all live with in less time. Heck, I'll be delighted to go back on the stage of my show and announce to the crew on our first day back, "Sorry guys, I guess I was wrong on that one." And I'll even stand still as the pies get thrown.
But I wouldn't put any stock in the other rumors coming from Nikki Finke, as we discussed earlier. This whole idea that star actors are somehow going to be put everyone back in a room and act as mediators is simply an unverified rumor. It sounds more like somebody's fervent wish than an actual plan, and I've heard no confirmation from anywhere that Finke didn't just hear some people suggesting what they hoped would happen.
The real work of getting the new contract is going to come with the negs that start tomorrow morning. And once we see the new contract, then we'll be able to see if the WGA will be able to make the compromises needed to end the strike, or if the hardliners rule the day. We should keep in mind that the very act of following the DGA pattern will effectively mean following the AMPTP's instructions of last month. And this assumes tha the AMPTP doesn't automatically turn to SAG before the WGA.
Kevin,
I think it's pretty clear that the Studios would go back to the Writers once the DGA deal is done.
Despite all the rhetoric that the Studios somehow wanted the strike so that they could force majeure a few deal, the strike is indeed hurting them, and they will want to wrap it up quickly.
Plus the pressure for the WGA to accept the DGA deal as presented will be immense, but only if it is offered immediately.
SAG is still a major wild card in the whole mess, however. Even if DGA and WGA sign a deal, there's no guarantee that SAG would sign it.
They have their own militant faction within the Board, and they may gamble that they could get quick concession with a walkout in June.
They may also encourage WGA not to sign a deal that they view as weak.
Cards are dealt, but the outcome is still not certain.
btl guy, I think the timeline will be key in what road gets taken.
Best case scenario: The DGA somehow gets a deal done within a month that meets with the approval of both WGA and SAG. WGA goes back to the table and has a contract by March. SAG and AFTRA have their contracts done before April, at which point everyone is finally back to work. (Given around a month of writing and prep time before filming of TV begins again.) That's a best case scenario.
Middle of the road scenario: the one I've been thinking more likely. That the DGA negcomm works until March to finalize a new contract that will also be palatable for SAG. By this time, the Oscars have already been aired but without much luster due to picket lines and other brouhaha. The mudslinging between WGA and AMPTP continues throughout the DGA negs, leading to increased AMPTP (and general industry) anger at the WGA. With only a couple of months left before the SAG deadline, AMPTP turns to SAG and works out their contract (as well as that of AFTRA). This gets done by mid to late May, at which point the WGA finally gets its turn back at the table. And then winds up taking the DGA deal, which is in the end, a sweetened version of what the WGA could have had back before the whole sleigh ride started. And on this timeline, the industry really gets going again some time in July. I still think this is the most likely scenario, but as I said, I'll be very happy to be proven wrong.
Worse case scenario: DGA gets a deal at whatever point between now and April, but neither SAG nor WGA will accept it, citing the 1984 video deal as a reason to reject the new contract. Strike continues all the way to summer. SAG refuses to negotiate until better deal is offered, and goes out on strike July 1. By mid-August, a slightly sweetened version of DGA contract is offered to SAG, and SAG strike ends. WGA stays out. By early September, AMPTP no longer recognizes WGA as bargaining unit for writers and begins hiring showrunners back on an individual basis. That scenario is one I seriously, seriously hope does not come to pass. Because if it really goes that far, it's bad news for all the other guilds and unions.
I agree that the AMPTP did not want or hope for this strike, but once it was clear that hardliners at the WGA did want it, they made appropriate contingency plans. They're not doing as well as they would be without the strike, but they're still making plenty of money from the reality shows. NBC may have been bruised by not getting the Globes this year, but on the other hand, they're raking in cash for American Gladiator. (and I really don't know why...)
SAG is indeed a wild card. I believe the hardliners there want a strike even more than the WGA hardliners wanted one. And I agree that they may try to push the WGA not to accept a deal that doesn't provide everything and the proverbial bag of chips.
The DGA talks are not a slamdunk, and I didn't mean to imply they are. I simply mean that they are the first concrete positive step that's been taken since the WGA made clear in October they were going out no matter what. The talks are the only step I currently see that gets us out of this mess, other than the WGA sending the letter to Nick Counter that they're ready to go back to the table. And since the WGA refuses to do that, that leaves us with the DGA at the table. Since that part is finally happening, I have to see that in a positive light.
Great analysis as always, Kevin.
My own best case scenario has DGA and WGA done by mid-Feb, but that's only a couple of weeks different than yours (and that's why they call it best case).
There is definitely a very militant (can we just say "crazy") faction within SAG that, like the Writers did, are licking their chops at the thought of a strike.
It's time to put crazy on the bus, and I think AMPTP knows it.
I'm optimistic, but I'm not holding my breath, either.
Everything hinges on the DGA deal -- how good is it and how quickly it gets done.
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