AMPTP Walks, Writers Cry "Doh!"

The AMPTP has walked away from the negotiating table.

They are pricks.  Predictable, but pricks nonetheless.

Here's what's going to happen now:

1) Writers will complain.  "Hey, we wanna negotiate.  They walked away."

2) AMPTP will ignore the Writers.  They don't exist.

3) AMPTP will deal with DGA.  Prelim talks are already underway.  Expect a deal to be struck by mid-January.  This is months before their contract expires.  Their deal will include internet.

4) Writers will say "Hey, that's not a bad deal.  Come talk to us."

5) AMPTP will say "We'll talk when you go back to work."

6) Writers will say "No way, man.  You're evil."

7) AMPTP will ignore the Writers.  They don't exist.

8) AMPTP will negotiate with SAG.  SAG will bring in a WGA person to sit and watch, as a token of solidarity with WGA.

9) AMPTP will sign a deal with SAG, probably in March.  Weeks before their contract is up.

10) Writers will say "Hey, that's not a bad deal.  Come talk to us."

11) AMPTP will sigh.  They'll sit with WGA.  WGA will get a better deal than is currently on the table from AMPTP.

12) WGA will declare that it was all worth it.

13) Hundreds, if not thousands, of displaced crew members will return to Hollywood, after having fled across the country looking for work.  The average TV crewmember will have lost about $40,000 - $60,000.  Many will have lost their homes and families.

14) There will be a flood of spec script sales.  The second half of 2008 will be the best 6-month period on record for Writers in terms of salary.

Look, maybe I'm talking out of my ass here, but this is what my crystal ball shows me.  Who's got other ideas?  Lemme know.

Strike A Deal Rally and March

In case you aren't aware, there is a big rally and march scheduled for this Sunday for everyone who is adversely affected by the strike.

I encourage everyone below the line to check out We're Walkin' So They'll Keep Talkin' and try to attend the rally on Sunday.

Whether you support the Writers or not, this demonstration will give a voice to those of us without a say, those of us who are most drastically impacted by the strike.

We want a deal to be fair, but we want it to be quick!  

And most of all, we just want to go back to work!

The Victims of the Strike

I'll say this first and foremost -- I know that Writers don't want to be out of work anymore than the rest of us do.  Many Writers are genuinely concerned about the hardships being incurred by Below The Line Crew (or anyone else affected) as a direct result of their Strike.

But I'm seeing quite a lot of "quit your complaining" and "awww, too bad" posts out there.

Here's why that attitude is both wrong and misguided:

1) Below The Line Crew Members are far more likely to be living paycheck to paycheck than are Writers.  

Much has been made about the WGA factoid that the average annual income for it's members is $62,000 over the past 5 years.  The average for 2006, though, is $105,000 (source: Wall Street Journal, Dec 4, 2007).  I don't know the number for the average IA worker, but I'm pretty sure it's less than that...

2) Writers continue to get paid during a strike, we don't.  All those reruns that are going to start airing everywhere?  That's money in your pockets.  $20,000 per episode, I believe.

3) Writers continue to work during a Strike, we don't.  There will be a flood of spec scripts on the market when this is over.  I know many of you are tirelessly walking the picket lines, but many of you are also writing in your newfound free time.  The work you do now will be paid for later.  

But Boom Operators can't boom, Camera Operators can't operate, Scripty can't check continuity, etc.

Some of us are probably writing too (ask any random person exiting a supermarket in L.A. how their script is going), but let's face it -- you get paid to write, we don't.  For the most part, there's probably a good reason for this.

4) When you deride those who are upset, you only drive the wedge deeper.  Look, I'm running a site called "Divided Hollywood."  I get that I'm not the ideal voice for unity.  But the truth is that I, like so many of us, want to see the writers get a fair deal.  

We're not on the side of the studios.  We want to see negotiations move forward quickly and fairly.

But most of all, we just want to get back to work.