Writers Approve The Contract

My time has been completely zapped in the couple of weeks since the Writers went back to work.  In that time, however, the contract was officially ratified, meaning the hardliners will have to wait for at least three years before plunging us all back into financial disaster.

But they needn't fret -- SAG lurks on the horizon.

The general feeling seems to be that SAG won't strike, but it obviously remains a very real possibility.

I haven't had a chance to write up my post-mortem on the Strike itself, and this remains something I look forward to doing (so check back!).  In brief, though, I -- like so many others -- believe that the Writers contract was achievable without going on strike.  And if not entirely so, then at least close enough that the costs of the strike far outweigh the modest improvements that the strike actually earned.  

Indeed, a negotiation which hadn't gone nuclear might have resulted in an even better contract -- think of the affordability of a $2000/yr internet residual if the Studios didn't have strike losses to recoup.

Now that the Strike is over however, I will assume that my writers are part of the 93% who voted to end the catastrophe.  I'm happy that we're all back to work (or getting there).

IT'S OVER!!

The Writers have overwhelmingly voted to return to work.  The Strike is over!!

Writers return to work tomorrow.  Cast and Crew should be right behind them.

Fingers crossed that SAG starts talks really soon.  (Like, tomorrow would be good).

I'll post my wrap up of the Strike this weekend.  In the meantime, I welcome everyone's comments -- good, bad, otherwise.

Best of luck to everyone.  Let's hope the rest of the year is busy for all.

It's Over! (Soon)

By all accounts, the WGA meetings went very well yesterday.  

The Guild Leadership changed their minds about lifting the Strike today, however, swayed by some prominent Writers (and United Hollywood admins) who felt that the Membership would feel better if they got to vote before the Strike was lifted.

As I said on UH yesterday, when this idea was floated out there, I agree with this in principle, but only if it seems the vote might be close.  If the vote was going to be a slam dunk, I argued, then all the Guild would be doing is delaying people's misery by an extra two days, just so the Writers could have a nice little feel-good moment.

The Deal is going to pass overwhelmingly.

But the Writers still want their feel-good moment.  So the rest of the town will suffer for an extra couple of days.  But at least the pain will be blunted by the fact that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually sunshine, and not a train...

It should also be worth noting that not lifting the Strike until after a vote is technically a violation of the conditions of the Deal.  Now, I don't expect a 48-hour vote (as opposed to a 10-day vote) to derail anything -- the Studios aren't THAT crazy -- but it's worth noting nonetheless.

Finally, before anyone goes out and makes some big celebratory purchases, it's important to understand that SAG's contract expiration still looms large on the horizon.

Most people feel secure that SAG will successfully pattern their deal off of the WGA deal, but their stance in this whole affair has grown increasingly militant.  The industry is definitely going to want to take their pulse before greenlighting projects that extend past June 30.

Pessimism aside, the fact that the Writers have finally got their contract is great news for all of Hollywood and great news for the Writers.  When all is said and done, the strike will have been 100 days, and they will have a contract that gives them the most important thing: jurisdiction over new media.

And it's going to pass the vote.

Whenever hope sprang up in the negotiations, my constant refrain was "cross your fingers, but don't hold your breath."  Now it's time to hold your breath... we're almost done.

I would especially urge any non-writers who are critical of the deal (or the path to it) to stay silent for a couple of days.  If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.  Don't put anything out there that could potentially derail the Deal (and thereby continue the Strike) until after it is signed.

There will be plenty of time for a Strike post-mortem AFTER the Strike is over.

That should be right around Wednesday!

Is That The Finish Line I See?

It came down to the last hour, but the deal language got resolved, and the WGA has reached a tentative agreement with the AMPTP.

The deal will be discussed in general assembly meetings in both NY and LA.

The board will decide tomorrow (Sunday) whether to lift the Strike or continue, based primarily on their belief that the deal will or will not be ratified by the Membership.

The deal points can be read here.

The biggest problem this contract faces is Hard-Liners' hatred of the 17-day promotional window for streaming reuse.  My guess is that, though truly hated, this provision will not be enough to derail the deal.

The argument will be "do we really want to strike for another 4 months just to get that down to 10 days?  Let SAG be the bad guys now -- see if they can get it."

Fingers are crossed.  This should be a deal good enough (especially with Verrone and Young's endorsement) to get the Strike lifted tomorrow.

Writers will be back to work on Monday.  Crews should be back days later.

The Moment (err... Weekend) Of Truth

On Saturday, the WGA will present the new proposal to the general membership at meetings on both coasts (assuming the legalese is properly worked out by midnight tonight -- which is not a foregone conclusion).

Strike Captains were shown the proposal today and, per an article on United Hollywood, this is the state of affairs:

Patric Verrone, Michael Winship, David Young, and John Bowman are all recommending the deal. They think it’s a good one – not perfect – but a good solid deal that we would never have gotten if we hadn’t have gone out on strike. They believe we got every last penny on the table. 

The negotiating team will go over the proposal, point by point, with the Membership.

If a majority of the assembly seems happy with the Terms of Agreement, and will likely ratify it – the greater board will take this into consideration when they meet on Sunday. Then, on Sunday they will vote on whether or not to lift the strike, and send everyone back to work on Monday. They will only vote to lift it if they feel that the majority of membership likes the deal and will ratify it. If that's the case – we go back to work on Monday.

It is now up to the Writers.  If the Hard-Liners sway enough people, the Strike will continue until at least June 30.  If the moderates prevail, the Strike That Never Should Have Been will finally be over.

The most important thing right now is for 1) the lawyers to finish up by midnight and 2) for all those Writers who swore by Verrone and Young at the beginning to be true to their words now.  Even if you aren't crazy with the deal, you have to trust your leadership.  Believe it or not, they may actually have a better understanding of how the negotiations have been going than you do.

Hopefully, clear minds and level heads will rule the day.

And then everyone else can get back to work.  Finally.

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Note: I have edited this post to remove a line about Verrone and Young which, though I still stand behind it, I felt was distracting from the point at hand and was looking at a possible outcome which I do not feel is likely.

WGA To Present Terms Of A Deal This Weekend

The WGA is going to present terms of a deal to the Membership on Saturday.  

This really could be "it"....

From Verrone and Winship, in the latest official WGA email to members:

As Negotiating Committee Chair John Bowman wrote you last night, we are continuing to negotiate the terms of a tentative agreement with the AMPTP. We anticipate that we will be able to present the terms of that agreement to you in the next few days.

While the Los Angeles meeting will be at 7:00pm on Saturday, the New York Meeting will be at 2:00pm local time.  Which means we will likely have word about the terms of the deal by noon on the West Coast.

It has been reported that, as part of the negotiations, the WGA will call off the Strike when the NegCom agrees in principal with the deal, as opposed to after an official Membership vote.

This means that, if things go well, Friday may be the last day of the Strike.  Cross your fingers, but don't count your chickens...

I have heard from several sources that production for most shows in the 2007-08 season will resume within a couple weeks of the Strike's end.  I've heard most shows will be looking to do anywhere from 5-8 episodes to finish out a truncated season.  It is likely, however, that some shows will not return this year.

For shows that do return, it is likley that SitComs will start shooting about 2 weeks after the end of the Strike and Dramas will take a week longer to start shooting.  Each show is unique, however, and some will take longer to get back up to speed.

Best of luck to everyone, and may cooler heads prevail.

Call For Posts

I am humbled and grateful that so many people have found this site and use it for real debate of the issues around the Strike.

I hate to be hogging all the front page space.

If anyone would like to post an article on the front page, please let me know at unite(at)dividedhollywood(dot)com.  [The (at) and (dot) are to prevent autospammers].

This offer is open to anyone, no matter what their stance on the Strike.

Depending on interest, I may give some people access to post directly.  Otherwise, I might post on their behalf.  I won't edit anything without your permission.  If I decide not to post an article, I'll do my best to make my reasons clear.

As always, the comments section remains unmoderated.

Wire Services Report Big Progress

Take this with a grain of salt, but the AP and Reuters are reporting that major hurdles have been cleared and a deal could be announced by the end of the week.

The deal would still have to be ratified by the WGA Membership.

No word on how this made it through a news blackout, or which side leaked it.  It could be an AMPTP trick.

Keep your fingers crossed, but don't hold your breath.

Read the Reuters report here.

Weekend Special - Open Post For The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

A comment from the previous post was looking for an open post in which everyone -- pro & con -- could express their views on the Strike.

As you probably know, comments from all points of view are always welcome here, even anonymously.

But here's an opportunity for everyone to express views, concerns or questions which are not tied to any one specific topic (other than the Strike itself).

If this gets too far off track, I may close the comments (to this post only) on Monday morning.

Otherwise, have at it...

Hardliners' Voices Rise Above The Moderates

It's been nearly two weeks since the DGA announced that it had reached a deal with the Studios, thereby averting a Directors' Strike and also, in theory, laying the foundation for the Striking Writers to secure a similar deal.

Initial response from Hardline Writers was as expected: "This is the worst deal in the history of deals."  

The rest of Hollywood saw the merits of the deal and, when the WGA NegCom and the AMPTP restarted negotiations (although informally), most of us collectively and optimistically held our breaths. 

The beginning of this week brought rumors that a deal was imminent, and perhaps it is.  But as the week has drawn on, there is a growing sense that the hardline view is actually starting to take hold.

People are still buying into the "Sky Is Falling" fear that reruns are going to disappear.  This is lemming-like conspiracy-based fear at its most insane.  The idea is so farfetched as to be comical, yet folks are falling for Mallory Keaton's warped (though obviously very earnest) view.

The boogeyman is everywhere...

Now the SAG president is squashing the deal.  Respected Writer-Director Phil Alden Robinson is writing (rather eloquently) about how bad it is.

I understand that this deal is not the pie in the sky deal that anyone wanted.  I even get that some realistic goals were not met -- I thought the streaming residual would come in at around $2000, for example (which is a number that might as well be $1200 as far as many hardliners are concerned).

But I urge these writers -- again -- to really lay out what they realistically expect to gain in a contract that is not currently there.  And, again, what price are they willing to pay?  What price are they expecting the rest of us to pay?

Is it worth another 6 months of strike in order to get jurisdiction for Reality?  Is it worth 3 months to get $4000 for streaming?

Cos guess what?  A lot of us don't think it is worth it.  We're done with this strike, which NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN.

We're sick of the financial losses.

We don't want to lose our homes.

We are sick of you flushing the present down the drain in exchange for a future that would be uncertain even with the bestest, most wonderful contract ever conceived by man, woman, or unicorn.

The DGA deal is an excellent template.  If tweaks can be made without derailing the whole process, fine.  But it is time to get Hollywood back to work.

This Strike has produced some dividends.  It's time to cash in. 

Sign the deal.

Both Sides Are Talking

It's been a few days since posting something new, but there hasn't been much to post about.

This is a good thing.

Writers and Producers are talking.  Writers have removed demands for Animation and Reality (which were, no offense to writers in those fields, obvious bluffs all along).

Both sides seem to be honoring a news blackout.

Dissection of the DGA deal continues, but the rhetoric seems to have fallen sharply.

Good luck to both sets of negotiators.  Figure this thing out and let's all get back to work!

The Irrational Fear That Reruns Will Disappear

One of the popular "problems" with the DGA deal (and past proposals) which keeps getting repeated like Gospel, is the idea that television reruns are going away and that soon all repeats will only be on the internet.  

The fear mongering argument then says that any money in this area, short of $20,000 (the current residual for a one-hour program) is a roll back.  Writers are going to go broke, claim the writer radicals, because their residuals will vanish.

The problem with this "problem?"  It's completely false.

Content is indeed shifting to the internet, and in a big way.  The issue, though, is who is watching it there.  The answer?  First time viewers.

People are watching more and more of their favorite TV shows online.  But they are watching it there instead of on TV, not in addition to TV.

The bigger problem with the Fear of Disappearing Residuals is that those afflicted can't come up with an answer to what will replace these supposed vanishing reruns.

If there's an empty timeslot on CBS' Monday Night Schedule, what do you think they're going to air?  The answer is simple CSI: Miami Repeat.  Why?  Because even if NBC airs a brand new episode of Studio 60, The Black Donnelleys or Journeyman; guess what show wins the timeslot?  CSI: Miami Repeat does.  Don't believe me?  Look up the last two years worth of Neilsons.

And, okay, I grant you that CSI: Miami is a hit show, and the WGA is striking for all writers, not just those on crappy David Caruso vehicles (nice shades, dude).

Let's take our dearly departed Journeyman then.  Assume for a moment that the show was still on the air.  March rolls around.  It's not Sweeps.  You could air a new episode, but you want to keep it for later.

So what is NBC to do?  According to the No More Reruns folks, NBC can't repeat an episode of Journeyman to catch up someone who hasn't watched from the beginning and still doesn't quite get why Dan Vasser travels through time, but never bangs his ex-girlfriend.

Well, if they can't rerun something (doomsday scenario), doesn't this mean that they have to -- gasp -- air something original instead?!?  And wouldn't this mean that there's a Writer somewhere getting first episode money instead of much lower rerun money??  Isn't this a GOOD THING??

Or is NBC more likely to just go black for the hour?  Seriously, they can't compete against CSI: Miami (ignore for the purposes of this argument that THEY are in repeats), so NBC should just throw in the towel and go dark, or let the late local news come on early so we can get extra footage of the Butt Naked Bandit.

In short, repeats -- to the detriment of the Television Viewer -- are not going anywhere.  They are a staple of American Network Programming and they are here to stay.  And all those cable channels?  They've got even more reruns than the big 4.

Streaming Media moolah is fresh, delicious moolah.  If you want more, go out and get it; but don't do it out of fear that stale old rerun moolah is going anywhere.  That garden is mighty green for years and years to come.

A Response to Nikki Finke's Shitty Column

As has already been reported, Nikki Finke's first column back since falling ill was titled first "Is That Shitty DGA Deal The Only Deal", and is now titled "That Shitty Deal Is At Least A Start."

Muckraking "journalism" at it's finest...

But I'll give her a tiny little bit of props for actually allowing some anti-Nikki comments to post.  I especially liked this gem, which completely sums up my feelings about DHD:

You probably won’t post this and that’s a shame. But I’ll comment anyway, futile as it may be. I come from a family of instigators, where someone will say to someone else that so-and-so said this awful thing about them, fueling anger and resentment on both sides. Most of the time, these gossiping family members think they’re “doing a good deed for the greater good of the family”, when in fact, they’re simply creating an atagonistic environment. What they really must do instead is: let people resolve issues amongst themselves. And that’s what you need to do with the strike. By posting your “shitty DGA deal” comment, you’re again fanning of the fires of radicalism. Which is what this strike has become. A radical, irrational shit-throwing war. Rational people in the WGA are muzzled by louder, angrier and bitter people in the WGA. Notice how progress was made in your absence, without your snarky editorials. Bottom line: you’re not really in the movie and TV biz, Nikki, you just report on it, yet inexplicably your comments can arguably iffluence the position of many people who are actually WORKERS in this town. Look, you do some very good reporting, but right now, you’re getting involved in something you shouldn’t be getting involved in by fanning the flames. So use your power wisely. I know you try to, but at times, like today, you do nothing but make a bad situation worse. Just like people in my family do. I see it all the time and believe me, people like you do no one any good.

Posted by "Rational Thinker".

If This Deal Was On The Table In October...

UPDATE - I'm moving this post back to the top, because I think discussion of the DGA Deal and it's impact on the WGA Strike is more interesting than a discussion of what's happening behind the scenes over at United Hollywood...

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Bloggers and commenters seem to be split on the value and merits of the DGA deal, especially when discussing whether the WGA should sign the same deal.

The most common refrain is something along the lines of "we didn't strike all this time to get that deal."

This is a common emotional response to negotiations, but it is the wrong way to look at the deal that's on the table (or soon to be, in this case).

What's done is done and it can't be changed.  So the Writers have to try to forget (for a moment) that they've been on Strike and look at this deal with fresh eyes.  They need to examine its merits and its faults and weigh whether it is acceptable versus an alternative of months more striking in exchange for an uncertain deal.

In short, pretend that the Strike never happened.  Pretend that the WGA MBA expires on January 30.  The DGA deal is presented by the AMPTP.  Do you take it?

If the AMPTP had been this reasonable way back in October, would this deal have been good enough to avoid a Strike?

If the answer is yes, then every businessperson in the world, every economics professor, would say you should sign the deal now.

If the answer is no, then you have more work ahead of you.  Now you have to determine what you might realistically gain by Striking.  And that has to be compared to the costs of Striking.

In all likelihood, a WGA dismissal of this deal would amount to a Strike which lasted until July or August.  The AMPTP would have more leverage than they have had at any time during this Strike.  And they have large coffers.  They won't budge from this, at least not in the short term.

This Strike has lasted 2 1/2 months.  Are you financially ready to go 6 months more?

There would likely be a wave of Fi-Core writers.  Maybe it's a handful, maybe it's dozens, maybe it's a hundred or more.  But no close observer of this Strike could honestly believe that the entire Guild would hold strong after rejecting a deal that many of its Members believe to be good.  How would this affect the Strike and the negotiations?

Finally, what is the added benefit that the additional strike would earn?  Could you get $2000 for new media streaming?  Is that worth 6 months of Strike and defections of the Membership?  Could you get Reality and Animation jurisdiction?  Would that make up for the current Members that you would lose?

This deal is not perfect.  In fact, it's far from perfect.  But this deal is good.  In fact, it's actually very good.  It offers new payments and jurisdiction that the WGA never had before.  And it forms the foundation for the next contract, when you can negotiate for an even bigger portion of the pie.

This deal is worth signing.  

Please, approve the deal and let's all get back to work.

New, Increased Moderation Of Comments At United Hosting

UPDATE - Comments are up and the debate appears a little less one-sided.  I've been in contact with one of the people that run United Hollywood and have been assured that they are working to keep the comment moderation fair.  They admit that mistakes happen, but they seem genuine when they say they are working to minimize that.

It would obviously be great if there was no moderation, but I believe them when they say that they receive a ton of truly nasty comments as well as pure spam.

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For everyone reading with fear all the negative comments at United Hollywood about this deal, know that you are only reading one side of the story.

Despite having a cordial and respectful posting relationship with United Hosting in the past, I am disappointed to report that my last two comments have not been posted to their corresponding stories.

Neither of my posts were inflammatory nor irrational.  Writers may or may not agree with the comments, but dissent has always been tolerated at United Hollywood.

John Aboud has even posted one of my suggestions on the front page there.  I have always been appreciative of their open-mindedness and, for the most part, their moderate (though obviously WGA-leaning) stance.  

I have commented repeatedly that I would stop posting if I was asked to. 

I was never asked.  I was deleted.

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For the record, my most recent comment actually was posted, but was deleted within 30 minutes.  The comment before that does not appear to have ever been posted.

The comments in question can be seen on this blog, under "If This Deal Was On The Table In October..." and "DGA Has Reached A Deal!"

Regular Divided Hollywood commenter TranspoBill also reports that his last 6 comments have not been posted.

United Hollywood's Post A Comment instructions still read "Rational debate and discussion from any perspective is welcome, and will never be deleted. "

DGA Has Reached A Deal!

The DGA has announced that is has struck a new deal with the AMPTP which includes doubling the DVD residual for all Internet Downloads (such as iTunes), and a new residual for Internet Streaming (such as NBC.com).

While the internet streaming residual is likely lower than what WGA members were hoping for (2 payments of $600 -- first after 17 days, and again after 26 weeks), it is important, I think, to put this into perspective.  This deal would give WGA jurisdiction over the internet, which has to be the number one concern at this stage.  It also gives the Guild payments based on Distributor's Gross, which was key.

The most important thing to remember is that WGA could sign this deal now, and revisit the actual dollar amounts in three years.  Hell, they could even strike again! (Note to WGA -- just because the previous strike was 20 years ago doesn't mean you HAVE to wait for 7 more contracts before using the Strike Threat Leverage again).

My initial reaction (which I'm sure is no surprise to anyone) is that this deal appears to be a good one.  It is lower than what the Writers hoped for, I'm sure.

The question is, are they ready to stay out for another 6 months in order to get an extra $1200 or so per episode from the Studios?

I hope not.

IF there were a DGA Deal now, what would it mean?

There's yet another rumor that the DGA deal is done. Especially considering what happened earlier in the week, I would take this with an even bigger grain of salt than usual (is UnitedHollywood the new DeadlineHollwoodDaily?).  

I personally heard rumblings about this yesterday, but chose not to post it because, well, who knows anything for sure (besides those actually in the room -- and I'm not in the room!)...  

 

As a general note, I'd find it almost impossible to believe that the DGA would sign a deal -- after only a week -- that wasn't good enough for WGA.  

But who knows?  

If there really is a DGA deal, then we are at a major tipping point in the strike. Either the WGA will sign a similar deal within the next week or two, or this will go through the end of Summer.  

There's really no middle ground that I can see.

Random Selection Continues, Approval Falls

A few quick items in todays news:

1) Rumor of a DGA settlement seems to be just that - a rumor.

2) Grammys are now the latest Awards Show to get denied an individual deal.  NAACP Image Awards, well those are just fine.  This brings the current tally to:

SAG and NAACP -- the Writers like you.  They really, really like you.

Oscars, Golden Globes, Grammys -- why can't you be more like your siblings SAG and NAACP?

3) ABC 7 / Survey USA Poll asked people who they favor in the Writers Strike.  

In November, the results were:

Writers: 69%

Studios: 8%

Neither: 23%

This week, the results were:

Writers: 57%

Studios: 8%

Neither: 35%

That's a twelve point drop in support for the Writers in two months.  No one's dumb enough to throw support behind the Studios, who have been acting completely irresponsibly.  But people are getting hip to the fact that there's plenty of blame to go around for this disaster.

DGA Deal?

United Hollywood is posting a rumor, which is apparently spreading like wildfire, that the DGA has reached an agreement with the AMPTP.

The deal, which is expected to be announced tomorrow (Tuesday), would seem (to me at least) to signal that the Directors have obtained a contract which would likely be agreeable to the Writers, assuming of course that the rumor is true.

As I have posted before, I have an extremely well-placed source who assures me that the DGA Negotiating Committee is acutely aware of what the Writers need to see in a contract that they could sign.  This same source predicted that the DGA deal would be done extremely quickly (though he thought it would be longer than this).

One would have to believe that the DGA would not settle so quickly if they were not able to satisfy the Writers' needs as well.

Further evidence that the deal, if real, is likely agreeable to the Writers is that several Studios(Warners, CBS, Universal, Fox) cut Writers' deal today.  The all directly cited the Writers' Strike as the direct reason for the cuts.

Fingers crossed!

UPDATE 11:23PM Monday - There hasn't been much else reported on this in the blogosphere or traditional press.  It's possible the rumor was started by the axe falling simultaneously at four studios, as opposed to it being an existing story which was fueled by the layoffs.

As with any and all rumors in this Strike, keep up hope; but don't fall prey to false expectations.  Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Pardon Me While I Rant...

I gotta say, I am super frustrated with the comments on United Hollywood and the direction that it is going.  For the past several weeks, the quantity and quality of comments has plummeted.  I originally wrote this off to the holidays, but the brain freeze continues.

First, the moderation of comments has really turned discussion into a series of time-separated opinions.  That is to say, the discussion is gone.

Second, and more importantly, the voices that remain just seem like total drank-the-kool-aid types.  There's seemingly no rational thought over there.  It's hard-line party-line the whole way.

I'm not saying that because people disagree with me that they're automatically wrong.  But no one is even open to the idea that there might be other ideas out there.

Any idea that might possibly have benefits for the AMPTP is automatically dismissed -- no matter how much benefit is might ALSO HAVE for the WGA.

These folks are in serious "cut off your nose to spite your face" mode.

The list of mistakes that have been made by the WGA leadership in this Strike is profound.  Any attempt to prevent future mistakes is met with a lemming-like loyalty to the Guild that would be laughable if it weren't so disturbing.

I am more and more convinced that the only hope we have is that the DGA get a good enough deal, and soon.  I mean, we knew this going into 2008, but it is more apparent than ever.  If WGA doesn't sign whatever deal DGA gets, this Strike is going to go through August or September.

I know that the commenters on UH are not the negotiating committee of the WGA.  But they used to be better than the Neg-Com.  If they still are, we're all screwed.