They are pricks. Predictable, but pricks nonetheless.
Here's what's going to happen now:
1) Writers will complain. "Hey, we wanna negotiate. They walked away."
2) AMPTP will ignore the Writers. They don't exist.
3) AMPTP will deal with DGA. Prelim talks are already underway. Expect a deal to be struck by mid-January. This is months before their contract expires. Their deal will include internet.
4) Writers will say "Hey, that's not a bad deal. Come talk to us."
5) AMPTP will say "We'll talk when you go back to work."
6) Writers will say "No way, man. You're evil."
7) AMPTP will ignore the Writers. They don't exist.
8) AMPTP will negotiate with SAG. SAG will bring in a WGA person to sit and watch, as a token of solidarity with WGA.
9) AMPTP will sign a deal with SAG, probably in March. Weeks before their contract is up.
10) Writers will say "Hey, that's not a bad deal. Come talk to us."
11) AMPTP will sigh. They'll sit with WGA. WGA will get a better deal than is currently on the table from AMPTP.
12) WGA will declare that it was all worth it.
13) Hundreds, if not thousands, of displaced crew members will return to Hollywood, after having fled across the country looking for work. The average TV crewmember will have lost about $40,000 - $60,000. Many will have lost their homes and families.
14) There will be a flood of spec script sales. The second half of 2008 will be the best 6-month period on record for Writers in terms of salary.
Look, maybe I'm talking out of my ass here, but this is what my crystal ball shows me. Who's got other ideas? Lemme know.
4 comments:
(sorry, posted b4 I was finished writing)
It could play out that way, BTL guy. I hope the strike gets settled a lot sooner so you guys can get back to work.
Speaking as a non-WGA member, and someone who's not affected by the strike (but who used to work in the industry below the line myself), you definitely have my sympathies.
I don't know if your "$20,000" per episode per writer figure is accurate. That sounds very, very high. Maybe for "Seinfeld" but for the working writer? And that's only for people who have written really popular stuff that's still in reruns--the writers of, say, "Remember WENN" (to pick a good show) or "Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers" (to pick a bad one)--they're not getting anything, nor are screenwriters. A lot of writers aren't getting paid either.
And yeah, you're absolutely right about BTL people much more likely to have to work paycheck-to-paycheck than writers (and as someone who tried to live paycheck-to-paycheck for three years in New York City--retail, Barnes & Noble--I sympathize immensely.
I would say, however, that that $105K figure, while "true" is somewhat misleading. Because of the strange nature of the biz, I'd say a good 75% of WGA members probably make less than $20,000 a year, and have to supplement their incomes through other jobs--teaching, retail, whatever's available. So they definitely feel your pain. At least, I do.
And I think the fact that the writers have dropped *all* their requests except the internet thing speaks well of the writers. The studios could settle this tomorrow. They're already claiming they're willing to pay $130 million over 3 years--the writers have calculated the cost of their proposal at $151 million over 3 years, and I'm sure are willing to work down.
In my view, it's not the WGA & AMPTP jointly screwing people over--it's the AMPTP screwing *everybody* over.
Wishing you the best. Hang in there.
Just one outsider's thoughts.
greg_machlin@yahoo.com
Greg,
The $20,000 per episode figure is something I got from the United Hollywood site. It is the number they use as a reference point for how much a writer of a 1 hour episode gets when that episode is rerun on its original broadcast network. I believe it is an accurate number.
As for the wage of the average worker, the AMPTP tries to say that they make over $200,000 a year. The WGA countered that the real number is about $62,000 / year, averaged out over the last 5 years.
Using the same WGA data, however, if you DON'T average, and just use 2006 to get the figure, it is $105,000.
Now, I don't claim to know whether 2006 was some banner year for writers, or what the statistical discrepancy is, but the truth is that they clearly needed to take a 5 year average in order to portray themselves as making so little money. This is how they play their role in the propaganda game.
Note, too, that clearly the AMPTP is using propaganda as well, trying to portray a salary that is nearly double reality.
The biggest point here is that both sides are fighting a propaganda war, and you have to take anything they say with a grain of salt.
For the common good, I call for a series of “Dark Days” (i.e. turn the lights off at all the studios, stop work in all the offices, stop equipment from being delivered, stop props from being returned).
The only way to break the resolve of the AMPTP is to act as a collective, to deliver a swift deft blow that knocks them to their knees, and then follow up with a blow to the head. The WGA says that they have struck, but without the support of all guilds, unions, non-union labor, vendors, and the viewing public the WGA’s action isn’t even a slap on the AMPTP’s fat overfed chubby face.
Some have asked the DGA to stand down from negotiating until the WGA has completed their talks. I say enough with talk. The AMPTP’s plays by the rules set down by Machiavelli and Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. They don’t negotiate. They go into battle to decimate their foe. Even archangels are fierce in battle. You can’t talk a bully out of beating the shit out of you. Sometime the smallest have to band together to defeat the giants in their path. To win a war you must cut then off the enemy off at their knees, crush them, do not allow them to retreat and reform to attack again.
SAG, the DGA, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, Local 80, Local 600, etc, have to act as one. Without solidarity the WGA will fail and everyone will suffer through their hopeless fight.
It’s not a coincidence that this strike comes at a time when our country faces great economic strife. People are already losing their homes. Months ago an article in The Wall Street Journal foretold of foreclosures, 4.4 million foreclosures due to the sub prime loan market. Banks are writing off billions of dollars. People are already financially overextended. People are already losing their jobs. The dollar is plunging. America is on the brink of a recession.
Of course, Big Business knows that the best way to leverage themselves against their workforce is to keep them just above starvation levels, to keep them so concerned about feeding their family, keeping a roof over their heads. When the workers have to struggle to survive then they don’t care about anything else.
So a protracted strike is not in the best interest of anyone. Reality TV will be used to fill the gaps, carpet baggers will become robber land barons, the film industry will see a surge in theaters goers, DVD rentals will increase. This will all lend aid to the AMPTP’s conifers and cause. If the community of artist and workers in the entertainment industry do not pull together as one, they can not expect to accomplish their goals. I say to everyone, stop being so self-centered and self-serving. We all want to work and take care of our families. We all want the good life.
The police call it the blue flu. I say sacrifice one day a week of your pay, which after taxes for the average BTL worker is only a few hundred dollars less a week. But if the strike is a protracted one, who gets hurt most, the BTL worker. Who loses their home, the BTL worker, who doesn’t have massive savings, the BTL worker, that’s who.
As a BTL worker, I say that we all should in unison turn off the lights once a week. Every week until this matter is settled, everyone in the industry should call in sick, take the day off, not go to work, not deliver the services or products. If we turn off the lights once a week and knock the wind out of the AMPTP’s inflated sails, if we all look at the reality of this situation and the long term devastation that this WGA strike will deliver, we should all see the logic in deft, decisive, unified action.
I call for rotating “Dark Days”. I call for the collective to act and be heard. Otherwise, it’s ever man, woman, or child for themselves, then chaos will rule and the AMPTP will prosper.
I don’t call for anyone person to sacrifice alone. I call for unified, organized actions, before the BTL worker, the people who really make the movies and televisions shows are devastated by the pride and principles of the AMPTP and the WGA.
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